Frankfurter Gemeine Zeitung

Bauen, bauen, bauen! Eine Antwort auf die Wohnungsfrage in Frankfurt?

Bauen, bauen, bauen – so klingt es aus den Frankfurter Amtsstuben sowie der ABG-Zentrale – werde die Wohnungsproblematik auch für Geringverdienende lösen. Zwar wird dabei in der Regel eingestanden, dass aufgrund der Profiterwartungen privater Investoren neuer Wohnraum fast ausschließlich im gehobenen bzw. Luxus-Segment entsteht. Allerdings würden, so zumindest das Versprechen, dank Sichereffekte und einer allgemeinen Entspannung des Wohnungsmarktes langfristig auch Haushalte mit niedrigen Einkommen indirekt von teurem Neubau profitieren. Daher sei es auch sozialpolitisch vertretbar, wenn die ABG Frankfurt Holding dem Beispiel profitorientierter Investoren folgt und Wohnungsbau überwiegend im gehobenen Segment betreibt.

Wissenschaftliche Grundlage dieser Argumentation bildet die sogenannte Filtering-Theorie, welche erstmalig 1949 von Ratcliff formuliert worden ist. Demnach profitierten auch ärmere Schichten von teurem Neubau, weil durch Umzugsketten letztlich auch günstigere Wohnungen im Bestand frei würden: Wohlhabende Haushalte ziehen in den teuren Neubau und mittlere Einkommensgruppen in die dadurch frei werdenden Wohnungen im mittleren Segment, so dass schließlich die einfachen Wohnungen für niedrige Einkommensschichten zur Verfügung stünden.

Auf theoretischer Ebene klingt dieses Argument zwar zunächst plausibel, allerdings konnte wissenschaftlich noch nirgends die empirische Gültigkeit der Filtering-Theorie belegt werden. Dies hängt vor allem damit zusammen, dass die Filtering-Theorie auf sehr restriktiven Vorannahmen beruht. Dazu zählt etwa – wie selbst deren Befürworter_innen eingestehen –, dass besagte Sickereffekte nur auf entspannten Wohnungsmärkten eintreten; also auf Wohnungsmärkten, die ein Überangebot an Wohnraum verzeichnen. Auf angespannten Wohnungsmärkten, wie etwa in Frankfurt, konnten dagegen bislang für keine Großstadt derartige Sickereffekte beobachtet werden. Grund dafür ist, dass selbst wenn wohlhabende Haushalte dank Neubau ihre günstigeren Mietwohnungen verlassen, diese Wohnungen an die neuen Mieter­_innen in der Regel weitaus teurer weitervermietet werden. Selbst dort, wo die neue „Mietpreisbremse“ gilt, kann die Miete bei einem Mieterwechsel auf bis zu 10% über die ortsübliche Vergleichsmiete angehoben werden – zumindest insofern dies der/die Vermieter/in angesichts einer angespannten Wohnungsmarktsituation durchsetzen kann. Und genau das ist in Frankfurt der Fall. Laut Wohnungsamt liegt die Wohnungsversorgungsquote bei 96,5 (Stand 2011); Tendenz weiter sinkend. Dass heißt, dass in Frankfurt für 100 Haushalte nur 96,5 Wohnungen zur Verfügung stehen (von einem entspannten Wohnungsmarkt spricht man dagegen erst ab einer Quote von 103). Unter diesen Bedingungen kann die Filtering-Theorie keine Gültigkeit beanspruchen, so dass Neubau in Frankfurt nicht dazu führt, dass bezahlbarer Wohnraum für niedrige und mittlere Einkommensschichten entsteht.

Hinzu kommt, dass selbst wenn sich irgendwann einmal eine Entspannung der Marktsituation abzeichnen würde, die Neubautätigkeit sofort drastisch zurückginge, da ab diesem Zeitpunkt die Renditeerwartungen der Investoren gefährdet wären. Denn ohne Knappheit an Wohnraum lassen sich auch keine hohen Mieten und somit auch keine „angemessenen“ Profite erzielen. Die Neubau-Strategie muss also scheitern, weil es erstens auf angespannten Märkten keine Sichereffekte gibt und zweitens profitorientierte Investoren bei einer „drohenden“ Entspannung des Wohnungsmarktes keinen Neubau mehr betreiben, da Knappheit notwendiger Bestandteil ihres Geschäftsmodells ist. Warum scheinbar ausgewiesene Wohnungsmarktexperten, wie etwa ABG-Geschäftsführer Frank Junker oder der Stadtplanungsdezernent Olaf Cunitz, solch immobilienökonomisches Grundlagenwissen nicht beherrschen, bleibt ihr Geheimnis.

Aus dem Vorherigen folgt nun nicht, dass in Frankfurt nicht auch der Neubau von Wohnungen geboten ist. Allerdings wird Neubau betrieben von profitorientierten Unternehmen aus den oben genannten Gründen alleine niemals zu einer signifikanten Entspannung bezüglich der Wohnsituation von einkommensschwachen Haushalten führen. Entgegen den fadenscheinigen Versprechungen von Junker und Co darf man sich keinerlei Illusionen hingeben. Neben dem Neubau sind tiefgreifende Maßnahmen, wie etwa ein Mietenstopp in ABG-Wohnungen und ein nicht-profitorientierter, gemeinnütziger Wohnungsbau, dringend geboten, um Wohnraum für niedrige Einkommensgruppen zu sichern.

Eine Stadt für Alle! Wem gehört die ABG?


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